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Davis faces startling handicap - he can't campaign as himself


July 27, 2003

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chameleons - willing to be the good ol' boy in Fresno, the sophisticate in San Francisco and the glamorous type in Los Angeles.''

Instead, Davis is likely to bank on his prowess as a tough negative campaigner who has worked his way up through the ranks and his skill as a political survivor. He's trying to paint the recall as a conservative coup attempt that threatens a liberal state.

``This election is not about changing governors,'' Davis said. ``It's about changing direction, and I am confident the voters of this state will not opt for a right-wing agenda over a progressive agenda.''

The approach is Davis' best hope to beat the recall, according to analysts.

``It's shrewd political strategy because that's going to get his party's base revved up, if at all,'' said Bebitch Jeffe. ``I mean, this is a guy who does not inspire enthusiasm among Democrats."

``The resonance of the `right-wing' phrase, and the kind of linkage to the Republican attempt to impeach Bill Clinton, may motivate the liberal base in a way that Davis himself never could,'' she said.

Davis also is scheduling almost non-stop public appearances.

``If people perceive him as being absent and passive, it will reinforce the negative perceptions,'' said Hodson. ``If people see him out at rallies making the argument why the recall should be defeated, actively engaged, then some of the negatives associated with his personality will ebb.''

``The negative perception is not so much that he is personally cold or reserved, the negative perception is more that he was passive. If he's out there being very active, then that's going to undermine that,'' Hodson said.

Voters are accepting of reserved politicians, he said, ``if they perceive that individual as being responsive and effective in their position.

``No one ever accused (former GOP Gov.) Pete Wilson of being warm and fuzzy. The same thing with (former GOP Gov.) George Deukmejian,'' said Hodson.

Nevertheless, both survived the maximum two terms as governor.

Beyond the style questions loom questions of substance.

Pummeled by accusations from Issa and other high-profile Republicans that he mismanaged the energy crisis, overspent state government into a deficit crisis, and allowed campaign contributions to influence his decisions, Davis has been forced this week to go on the defensive.

``This recall was clearly of Gray's making,'' Issa said. ``He created the deficit problem and the driving out of California's businesses. He lied about it in the last election and he has no plan to fix it. That's the reason that the voters have lost faith in Gray Davis.''

Davis responded that ``there's a lot more people willing to vote against the recall than there are who think I'm doing a good job.''

``If you look at those voters, they say, `It's not fair to blame this on the governor.' It's that sense of fairness that I think will carry the day,'' Davis said.

``If I were the only governor in the country doing something wrong, then we wouldn't have 46 other governors struggling with their budgets, making cuts, having to raise taxes,'' he said.

As Davis, Issa and others slug it out, strategists are saying, of course, that they will be able to counter each other's tactics.

But despite Davis' attack-and-defend course, experts wonder if it will be enough.

``Davis is in more trouble than I thought he might be because he's got a limited arsenal to draw on at this stage of the game,'' Bebitch Jeffe said.

``It's a little late to add any other arrows to the quiver because people are cynical about that, are skeptical about a change

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